Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Oh What a Wicked Web We Weave ...

Now that everyone has agreed we are losing Iraq and people are realistically looking at the options, Jon Stewart's titling "Mess-O-Potamia" seems all the more apt. We are dealing with a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis. The whole notion that Al Qaeda has much do with it is ridiculous doublespeak. They represent an estimated 2-3% of the "insurgency."

Shiites are well aligned with Iran, which is why we are engaging them now politically. The cost of this war is not just the half trillion dollars, the 3,000 american lives and 20,000 mamed (not to mention all those pesky Iraqis we killed and mamed), but a tremendous political loss. We now have engaged Iran and Syria to help us and have lost any leverage with them. Good luck on blocking the nuclear power plant now. We are literally pandering to the Axis of Evil (Syria should have been there). Maybe that's why George Bush always looks like he is about to throw a tantrum.

Now Saudi Arabia, a Sunni majority, is looking at what's unfolding and concluding the obvious, which is that the Sunni's in Iraq will get the short end of the stick in Iraq. And by short end, we are talking a military campaign of ethnic cleansing.

A Saudi contractor, Nawaf Obaid, who was consequently fired by the Prince Turki al-Faisal, wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post outlining how far Saudi Arabia was willing to take it. By increasing oil production, they could half oil prices overnight and magnify Iran's economic woes and bring it to its knees. It's economic warfare between Saudi Arabia and Iran. One can only imagine what happens next. They are already summoning Sunni's to come to the aid of their brethren in Iraq. That's a nice way to say the army is mounting.

Sectarian violence is a joke of a term. We are finally agreeing that it truly is a civil war. But with Saudi Arabia and Iran being forced to jump in, this war could turn much bigger and much less civil. Hopefully, the diplomatic efforts of the US can navigate this tightrope walk. This administration's diplomatic track record speaks for itself...

At least Iran doesn't have the bomb ... yet.

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